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Rogue横扫BDS,Oner惊艳世界

  查看PDF原文 公告日期:2016-04-01

  远东宏信(03360) A mixed bag. Far East Horizon (FEH) reported net profit up 9% y-o-y to RMB2.5bn in 2015, in line with our forecast. We note the trend varies among different income streams – fee income from advisory services grew 42% y-o-y along with the expansion of its leasing business scale and improvement of service capability, while net interest income fell 5% on lower net interest margin (NIM, down 68bps) due to continuous monetary easing in China and asset-liability mismatch on currency and duration. Revenues from industrial operations (equipment operation and healthcare services) grew 77% y-o-y from a low base, but only comprise 7% of total revenues. On the asset quality, NPA ratio remains benign but asset write-down and disposals have more than tripled, resulting in a lower coverage ratio and higher impairment charges. Fighting against macro challenges. The macro environment remains unfavourable –domestic economic slowdown could harm assets quality plus interest rate and currency risks heightened on the unparalleled interest rate movements between the US and China. FEH has taken a series of actions to deal with the challenges, including: It has conducted more finance leasing with fixed-rate pricing mechanism and expanded its presence in the domestic bond market to obtain low -cost funding. To enhance capital efficiency, it has accelerated assets turnover through assetbacked securitization (ABS). It has developed operating leasing and industrial operations for diversification. We believe the first two measures help it to take advantage of the ample liquidity in China and improve profitability, while the industrial operation is still in the early stage. Forecasts, valuation and risks. We lower our 2016e and 2017e earnings forecasts by 10% and 5%, respectively, on lower net interest spread (NIS) assumptions and introduce our 2018e forecasts. Our TP – which is derived from a PB-based valuation approach –remains unchanged at HKD6.6. We reiterate our Hold rating. Key upside and downside risks include clarity on the expected change in shareholding structure, favourable/unfavourable changes in macro conditions, industry regulations andliquidity conditions, FX volatility and its strategy in business diversification.

Rogue横扫BDS,Oner惊艳世界

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